The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research – South Africa’s scientific research and development organization – called for additional investment towards the development of skills and technology to aid in the management of climate variability and adaptation to extreme climate events.
Speaking at the University of the Western Cape on November 1, climate experts stated that additional skills and technology development is essential to improve strategic research, seasonal forecasts and early warning systems that predict and mitigate climate change in South Africa and neighboring countries.
“This year, the frequency, intensity and variety of extreme events globally have increased significantly, and many of these, such as the recent Mexican tropical storm, the flooding in Libya and fires in Hawaii, have been unprecedented in location and scale,” stated Professor Erich Fischer, Senior Scientist at Swiss research university, ETH Zürich. “We need to work together in deploying scientific capabilities to avert future environmental disasters.”
According to experts, average global sea-surface temperatures and average daily atmospheric temperatures continue to increase annually by record margins. As a result, early preparation is needed in anticipation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event – a recurring warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean – due to its ability to influence global atmospheric circulation.
Researchers in South Africa regularly monitor the ENSO system, which is strongly associated with droughts and a high frequency of heat waves throughout the summer rainfall regions in the central parts of the country. Last June, the researchers presented evidence of a moderate-to-strong ENSO event developing in 2023.
“The 2015/16 El Niño was the most severe of these events on record, and on the whole, this El Niño, the 2023 event, will be strong to very strong, and it may well have a significant impact, given the background of a warmer state of the global climate,” stated Dr. Christien Engelbrecht, Researcher at the South African Weather Service.
The 2023 ENSO system served as a focal point of the discussion, with forecast models predicting a drier and hotter season in South Africa in the coming months. It was noted that reduced rainfall as a result of the event has the potential to affect agricultural production, human health and food security, resulting in the country having to import maize, while threatening both small-scale and commercial farmers.
“The global climate indices represent a worrying development in that we are in new territory – really a different world to what we know – and the precise implications of this are not yet apparent, but will not be good for humanity,” stated Dr. Neville Sweijd, Director of the Alliance for Collaboration on Climate and Earth Systems Science, adding, “We have experienced the warmest day ever on record, and the warmest month, June.”