Global intelligence firm Rystad Energy has launched its 2024 Global Energy Scenarios report. The firm hosted a webinar to discuss key findings of the report, highlighting the state of the global energy system and pathways to energy decarbonization.
Released on October 31, the report highlights that rapid advancements in renewable energy technologies and increased investment in sustainable development is advancing the global energy transition. Furthermore, the report provides an analysis of energy demand, emissions and the trajectory of the energy transition for more than 102 countries from 2024 to 2100.
According to Rystad Energy CEO Jarand Rystad, energy demand is projected to stabilize over the coming decades, with emerging regions such as India and Southeast Asia poised to drive increased demand. Conversely, growth in China, Europe and the U.S. is anticipated to gradually decline, aided by renewable energy achieving cost parity with fossil fuels.
Currently, renewables make up 43% of the global power mix, a notable increase as European fossil fuel consumption fell from 35% to 22% in 2024. In the report, Rystad Energy outlined that the implementation of sustainable technologies could avoid an additional 1.6 °C of warming by 2040.
To achieve emission reductions, the report outlines three key tasks: decarbonizing electricity, electrifying end-use sectors and addressing residual emissions through technologies like carbon capture and storage and cleaner fuels.
It was noted that solar, wind and battery storage technologies have the potential to cut over 90% of emissions if deployed globally. As such, Head of Energy Systems at Rystad Energy Jo Husebye highlighted that the addition of approximately 850 GW of solar capacity annually will be needed to cap global warming to 1.9°C by 2100.
Husebye pointed out that while the technologies are available to meet the 1.6°C target —a scenario focused on limiting warming to 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels —challenges remain in securing adequate land and optimizing grid infrastructure. This is particularly relevant in regions within the solar belt, such as parts of Africa, where solar capacity could meet demand more effectively.
Meanwhile, Jon Ødegârd Hansen, Head of Energy Scenarios at Rystad Energy, discussed the significant potential of electrifying sectors like transport and industry to reduce emissions by up to 40%. Hansen emphasized that electricity should cover at least 50% of global energy consumption by 2050 to achieve the 1.6°C scenario, noting that, “fuel-switching and energy efficiency improvements, such as electric vehicles (EVs) and heat pumps, outperform fossil-based alternatives.”
Hansen further highlighted the variation in electrification, pointing out that China has successfully grown its electrification rate from 10% to 30% over three decades and remains a leader in EV deployment, with 23% of vehicle sales in 2024 being electric. Hansen also underscored the industrial sector’s decarbonization potential, especially in producing green steel with renewable power and green hydrogen.
Furthermore, Lars Nitter Havro, Head of Scenario Analytics at Rystad Energy, explored strategies for managing residual emissions from hard-to-abate sectors, such as aviation, shipping and cement. He explained, “Clean fuels, including biofuels and green hydrogen are expected to dominate by 2050,” given their compatibility with existing infrastructure. However, Havro cautioned that the transition to biofuels and hydrogen carries substantial risk in the near term and technological advancements will be essential to making this shift feasible across global markets.
