OPEC ensured a strong presence at the Invest in African Energy forum in Paris earlier this month – the continent’s premier energy project showcase outside of Africa. Not only did OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais deliver an opening address, but he was accompanied by a high-level delegation from the OPEC Secretariat comprising department heads and other high-ranking officials – many of them African – demonstrating the cultural and economic significance of the continent to the global oil bloc. Home to six OPEC member countries, the African continent plays a critical role in shifting oil supply and demand dynamics and is set to play an even larger part, according to OPEC’s latest forecasts.
OPEC Secretary General Opens Forum
Affirming OPEC’s commitment to driving Africa’s oil industry forward, Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais delivered a keynote address as part of the opening ceremony, highlighting the future role of oil in the global energy mix. According to the Secretary General, Africa’s oil demand is expected to double to 8.2 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2045 – owing to accelerated growth across residential, commercial and agricultural sectors – while global oil demand is set to reach 116 million bpd. To meet growing energy needs, Secretary General Al-Ghais emphasized that every primary energy source must be utilized, including Africa’s vast horizon of undeveloped oil resources.
With more than 120 billion barrels of crude oil, the African continent is currently home to a frenzy of exploration activity, from Trident Energy’s Block G drilling program offshore Equatorial Guinea to BW Energy’s multi-well exploration and drilling campaign on the Dussafu license offshore Gabon. Libya alone has announced 45 greenfield and brownfield projects in the pipeline to reach its targeted oil output, along with an upcoming licensing round. Through its participation at the forum, OPEC made clear that unlocking Africa’s hydrocarbon resources through sustained upstream investment is not only critical to African, but global energy security.
OPEC Supply to Expand Long-Term
In addition to opening remarks delivered by the Secretary General, a team of high-level OPEC officials led a special session unpacking their short- to long-term crude oil market perspectives. According to OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report, African and emerging markets will play a dominant role in driving oil supply and demand through 2045. With the global economy set to at least double, intra-African and South-South cooperation will play a vital role in harnessing Africa’s commodity wealth across hydrocarbons, minerals, metals and renewable resources.
In terms of supply, the report found that non-OPEC producers will drive the market in the short term, with new supply coming primarily from Brazil, Guyana and Canada. However, OPEC-led supply is set to expand in the medium- to long-term, rising to about 40% of the oil market by 2045. This supports the notion that African oil production is on the rise, with target production increases from Libya (2 million bpd by 2027), Nigeria (2.6 million bpd by 2026) and the Republic of Congo (500,000 bpd by 2026), along with recent offshore finds in frontier markets like Namibia, which could become Africa’s fourth-largest oil exporter and latest OPEC member.
Finally, the session highlighted recent developments in crude oil refining and trade on the continent and their impact on the price and availability of refined petroleum products. While Africa’s refining capacity has been limited to date, new developments – including Nigeria’s 650,000-bpd Dangote refinery – are reshaping the sector and are set to drive oil demand further by enabling value-addition and monetization of crude oil resources.
Join us next year in Paris on May 13-14 to further unlock Africa’s oil and gas investment potential.
