A 2024 energy outlook released by research and analysis company Economist Intelligence highlights several market dynamics projected for the upcoming year. From a rise in global energy demand to anticipated growth in production levels, these trends are expected to influence the global energy industry and beyond.
Growth in Global Energy Consumption
Global energy demand is set to rise, with consumption on track to grow 1.8% in 2024. This shows an increase from 1.2% in 2023, with the surge in demand driven by heavy usage in Asia. The Middle East will experience high demand due to temperature increases, while in Africa, efforts by governments to improve energy access and industrialization are likely to enhance consumption.
Fossil Fuel Demand to Hit Record Levels
The demand for coal, oil and natural gas is poised to surge in 2024, hitting record levels. On the oil front, demand is projected to increase by 1.7% year-on-year in 2024, driven largely by Asian, Latin American and Middle Eastern markets.
In the coal industry, heightened demand is anticipated in coal-dependent nations like South Africa, Botswana and Morocco. Coal demand is expected to increase for the fourth consecutive year, and coal-producing countries such as Zimbabwe, Kenya and Uganda have a strategic opportunity to capitalize on this trend.
Meanwhile, demand for natural gas is projected to be conservative due to high prices. However, Asia and the Middle East will continue to see growth in demand, particularly across the power generation industry. African nations, particularly gas producers like Algeria and Nigeria, among others, are expected to play a pivotal role in meeting escalating demand.
Oil, Gas Production Continue to Rise
Fueled by increased investments in upstream projects and the strategic efforts of producing countries to capitalize on high prices, there is an anticipated growth in oil and gas production in 2024. The European Union’s drive to replace Russian gas supplies is expected to stimulate investments in other regions, notably Africa, with global gas production projected to increase by 2.2% year-on-year.
African oil and gas-producing countries such as Mozambique and Algeria are poised to bolster production levels, while production in Algeria – Africa’s top gas producer – is expected to grow following the expedited development of new fields such as Hassi R’Mel.
Renewable Energy Demand to Remain High
A rapid expansion of the renewable energy market will take course in 2024 as global efforts to ensure energy security, while transitioning to decarbonized sources, accelerate. Combined solar and wind energy consumption will grow by 11% year-on-year, with renewable energy capacity expected to increase in 2024 from the record high of 400 GW in 2023.
In Africa, countries such as South Africa, Egypt and Morocco – which have already strengthened energy transition regulations and created funding partnerships with global parties – are expected to advance renewable penetration with more deal signings and project rollouts.