Energy-related emissions are projected to peak in 2024, according to assurance and risk management firm DNV’s latest Energy Transition Outlook.
The forecast marks a turning point, as emissions are set to nearly halve by 2050, although this reduction falls short of Paris Agreement goals. The rapid decline in solar and battery costs is a key driver in emissions abatement, pushing coal out of the energy mix and limiting oil growth.
In 2023, solar installations increased by 80% and battery costs fell by 14%, making solar power and electric vehicles (EVs) more affordable across the globe. China’s role in this industry is significant, accounting for 58% of global solar installations and 63% of new EV sales last year.
“Solar PV and batteries are driving the energy transition, growing even faster than we previously forecasted,” said Remi Eriksen, Group President and CEO of DNV. “Emissions peaking is a milestone for humanity. But we must now focus on how quickly emissions decline and use the available tools to accelerate the energy transition.”
Meanwhile, wind power continues to expand, expected to contribute 28% of global electricity generation by 2050, with offshore wind forecast to grow at a 12% annual rate. However, progress in sectors like hydrogen and carbon capture remains slow, with hydrogen projected to make up only 4% of final energy demand by 2050, down from an earlier estimate of 5%. Carbon capture and storage is also lagging, with only 2% of global emissions expected to be captured by 2040 and 6% by 2050.
Fossil fuels continue to dominate the energy mix, accounting for roughly 80% of today’s global energy supply. According to the outlook, this will shift to an even 50/50 split between fossil and non-fossil fuel sources by 2050. Electricity use will double in that time, though energy demand will only increase by 10%.
